What Comes Next Ukraine? A Debate (1)

The downing of flight MH17 in eastern Ukraine is the type of tragedy that has the potential to completely reshape the West's involvement in the ongoing crisis. The outrage in England and Amsterdam is palpable, and even normally reticent countries like Germany seem to have adopted a much more aggressive attitude towards Russia over the last week. 

These are the kind of singular moments that demand we once again take stock of our knowledge of the events on the ground. It's an excellent time to ask ourselves, what comes next? Does a tragedy of this scale lead to a resolution of the rebellion or is it only another step in a dangerous environment that is quickly escalating? 

Since forecasting is inevitably an exercise in speculation,  it is a disservice to any reader to present only one side of the argument. So, I'll offer both. This article will present my case for why I believe that this is the herald of the beginning of the end. I'll follow it with an argument for why the situation might only become more dangerous in the coming weeks.

I don't believe that these arguments are fully mutually exclusive. Hopefully, seeing a more nuanced presentation of this issue will give readers room to synthesize their own opinions about what might happen and why.

Without a doubt, things are already much different in Russia than where they were before the crash. On the rhetoric side, this is the first time we've heard Putin criticize the separatists in Ukraine. Calling them a bunch of "drunken idiots" - an insult favored by John Kerry too, he said their confiscation of the black boxes and treatment of the bodies was "grotesque."  

Words might not always mean much but the bodies (or at least almost all of them, there's confusion about that) and the black boxes have been turned over. This is the first time that those idiots have cooperated on anything having to do with the crash. In general, the separatists have suddenly become much more comfortable with investigators with the OSCE, and there is little doubt here about the outcome of this investigation. Hell, we even have video of the exact missile launcher crossing the Russian border while missing a missile.

Now, keep in mind that issues in international affairs move really slowly, which is little comfort in our current media environment. The EU just passed serious sanctions, they won't accomplish anything else until they meet again in late August (i.e. SIX WEEKS). Nonetheless, the Russian economy is hurting badly, and there is plenty of evidence that European sanctions will be very unpleasant. Plus, in coming meetings there are still plenty of ways to inflict punishment.

That said, there are some powerful forces standing in the way of a resolution. Most important of those is the racist and nationalistmess  the Russian government kicked up while working the public into a war frenzy. Imagine something like Fox News leading up to the Iraq War, now imagine that this is on every channel. The march to war is the loudest and most popular thing on Russian TV right now. It will need to be ratcheted down slowly. 

It's often difficult for us to deal with slow-moving events, most conservatives will look at this as evidence of "Obama's weakness as a leader." They would prefer a much more belligerent attitude that includes military mobilization. Given the direction of events, this is obviously the wrong the choice, and it certainly risks the threat of overreaction and blowback.

Putin doesn't care if "America shows strength" with military posturing or empty threats. Putin cares about whether he's respected in the international community, and that his country is considered a force both within his region and in the larger global field. The war in Georgia, for example, accomplished this. Having endured a very small storm of criticism, Russia emerged from the conflict feared and invigorated. It happened in Crimea too. But that's not happening this time. I guess that the third time isn't a charm here.

Putin wants to be the guy always at World Cup matches with Merkel.

Putin wants to be the guy that benevolently parades among Olympic champions.

Putin, fundamentally, does not want to be a pariah like Qaddafi. This is an important aspect of Russian masculine culture. To be respected is to be loved. It is a very important issue for Russia men, and you know you're asking for a fight if they ask "do you respect me?" The Ukraine game could continue as long as Putin was considered a part of European leadership.
 
How do I know this? Because history is on my side. In 2008, at the peak of US economic strength and with a US leader whose entire foreign policy was based around projecting force around the globe, Russia invaded Georgia and precipitated the independence of two breakaway republics. Dick Cheney and George Bush's "leadership" was no deterrent. Neither was our economic might. Remember, this was the highpoint of the economy for the next five years.

Russia finally stopped its tanks outside of Tbilisi after European leaders forced a ceasefire. Keeping strong ties with Europe remained Russia's prerogative. In fact, it was even more important that putting the boot on Saakashvili's throat, and anyone who's anyone knows how much Putin hates Saakashvili. In what has to be the greatest Putin quote ever, Vladimir told Sarkozy that the whole point of the war was to throw Saak out of office and "hang him up by his balls."

Getting kicked out of Europe would be devastating both personally and politically for Putin, and he'll put a stop to this as sanctions increase. He's lost. He's recognizes it. We're moving on. It'll take awhile to get there, and we should expect some serious human rights violations along the way, but Russia will have to stop meddling in Ukraine. At least for now.