There's a tendency on the left, particularly among those a little outside of the mainstream, to often write about the fast-approaching violent overthrow of the current American government and society. We've been through a lot recently, so it's easy to get caught up in the "signs of impending disaster." Unfortunately, those caught up in this kind of augury are usually missing the forest for the trees. If you want to claim that a violent revolution is coming to the US, or even a wave of property crime is about to emerge, you need to back it up with a decent and relevant historical example. Two factors need to be kept in mind: level of development and possibility of an external factor introducing violence.
The Soviet Union experienced years of economic and political decline accompanied by regular violent action from the state, but it did not end because of some violent revolution. In fact, for all of the emotions involved and the excitement of actually seeing your world and life transform in front of your very eyes, the whole process was remarkably nonviolent. Huge political and societal changes in other well-developed countries follow similar trajectories. South Africa, the Ukraine, Georgia and the reunification of Germany are all examples.
We’re also entering a very unique period with the massive decline in violence and war throughout the world. Up and until 1945, total war was a regular feature of the developed world. We haven’t seen one since, and I would bet everything I have on not seeing one again.
The world has remarkably grown out of its most terrible habits, as it has changed in marvelous ways over the last two hundred years. You can see some examples of that here:
I also strongly disagree with the arguments about cultural decline. The reason that the world is so much better to all people now is the direct result of culture in a variety of forms. Sure, plenty of an be considered stupid and lacking value (here's looking at you, the Jersey Shore), but it always has been that way. On the other hand, there is a real sense of value in the amount of togetherness it provides, and the ability it has to broaden the scope of what we define as people like us.
You might not like sports, but there is something truly remarkable about the collective catharsis and unity that it brings out of its fans. We’re able to find more or less benign outlets for huge amounts of emotion. This is a major step forward for our society, especially in comparison to the propaganda of the Third Reich, Passion Plays or the Coliseum, which used cultural events to radicalize people and push them to enact violence on minority groups. It should really make you smile to think that the overwhelming majority of white males receive most of their entertainment from the physical accomplishments of a minority group, and heap loads of adoration on them for that. It’s something special.
And if there needs to be another argument, it’s this: culture is undoubtedly the highest achievement of human society, the reflection of our development and growing sense of peaceful unity as a whole. At its best, culture is a purely unique luxury that allows us to express ourselves in a way that is genuinely beautiful. If you don’t like sports, fine. Go read War and Peace. It will have the same effect: making you into a better, more peaceful human being.
It's clear to me that people making these sort of end-of-the-world arguments lack a healthy sense of perspective. While I agree that there are problems in the US, the challenges America faces are much smaller than those in many other countries around the world, many of which don't have the luxury of things like a middle class. I, for example, live in Kazakhstan, which is a totalitarian state that uses violence to suppress political dissent. It doesn't have any real middle class outside of its major cities, and its people spent most of the 90s on the verge of starvation.
But while not ideal, life here is not actually that bad. Plenty of people in this country don’t even have the luxury of running water or indoor toilets, which sucks during Siberian winter, and they get on fine. For those that earn a more luxurious salary, say $1000 a month, life is quite pleasant.
A long economic decline does not necessarily mean massive political upheaval. If anything, I’d put much more money on the possibility of the US going through piecemeal authoritarian transformation, in a way similar to Russia in the late 90s, than some violent uprising.
And you know what? Even if that happens, life for most people will still be pretty much bearable, and the kind of stuff apocalyptic predictions still won’t happen.
