On MH17, Blowback and the Future of Ukraine

When faced with an IR problem that "scares me," what is the appropriate response? No doubt, we badly want to go out there and "fix things," "bring evil-doers to justice" and "make right with the world." And without question, I am both infuriated and dispirited after witnessing 300 civilians casually murdered. Dear reader, you're not alone, I want something done too.

Nonetheless, reacting aggressively to perceived threats is very dangerous. This is something similar to the "compulsion to act," a terrible logical fallacy that comes up when faced with uncertainty and danger. The world is a scary place, and we would prefer to believe the lie that there's always something that "Obama can do" to fix it. Once again, look at "bring back our girls." What an awful situation. Wouldn't be nice if we could just ride in and fix it? We can save some lives and shoot some evil terrorists along the way! It'll be just like Kony2012 or Rambo 5. I get those two mixed up sometimes.

Obviously, we can't actually go out and fix things, not in the emotionally satisfying way that gives the world's John McCain's a hard-on (i.e. vaporizing brown kids). Overreaction is a much greater threat than under-reaction. 9/11 has proven costly not just because of the people lost that day, but because of the insane series of decisions that led to invading two countries, wasting trillions of dollars, sacrificing thousands of Americans, destabilizing vast portions of the globe, poisoning key alliances and ultimately accomplishing nothing of any meaning (aside from one dead Osama. Hurray!).

The Obama administration has learned this the hard way, after a series of humiliating foreign policy failures in the Middle East and South Asia. Invading Libya couldn't have gone worse, nor has the "Afghan surge" proven to magically build a democracy in Kabul. We bungled a response to the Arab spring and are now forced to ally with the leader of mass executions and religious suppression in Egypt. Even when we respond at the right moment, it's become painfully obvious that our choices and our realistic chances of success are extremely limited. To make matters worse, the ability to enact change in dangerous places is only becoming more rare as the dangers of asymmetric power steadily increase.

All of this is quite weird when discussing Russia, since this seemed to be the case of one of the few major powers that "got it." Throughout all of the build-up to Syria and nuclear negotiations with Iran, Russia emphasized the importance of international stability over idealism, of recognizing our limitations and the dire consequences of failure. They seemed to have learned this the hard way after having to level the North Caucasus on multiple occasions, only to see more terrorists, more violence and an even greater need to go back every few years. And yet, despite all of this hard-earned wisdom, the relentless urge to "do something" has backfired disastrously. Instead of stamping out right-wing extremism in Ukraine after Maidan and restoring East-West balance in Ukraine, they're looking at a horror show of blowback:

1. They armed terrorists that killed 300 civilians (or alternatively Russian black ops mistakenly did it on their own. Even worse). On that plane were some of the leading AIDS researchers and activists. They've guaranteed that this regime will be permanently thought of in the same context as Qaddafi's. That ended well.
2. They will face serious unrest back home for laying bare the emptiness of political ethno-nationalism. That racist frenzy they whipped up won't suddenly vanish after losing its convenience, and the threat of violence within Russia grows. Instead of containing their own Maidan, they've probably only made it more likely. Look how quickly they fell apart in Ukraine. How long will they hold up to real domestic pressure?
3. Ukraine is irreversibly now on the path to the EU and NATO. Georgia too. While Russia was trying to expand their sphere of influence and solidify regional soft power, every one of their neighbors has learned the exact opposite lesson from this: you better be in NATO or nuclear armed if you want to avoid meddling. 

In almost every conceivable way, Russia has failed. Even worse, they had "victory" right after the annexation of Crimea, but the urge to act, hubris or some combination of the two found a way to crush them along the way. The message had become clear and decisive. Stir up anti-Russian hatred in some stupid exercise of "democracy"? We'll crack the whip, and you'll pay the consequences. Instead of coming off as brutal and forceful, Moscow is proving unable to contain the mess it put together. It's hard to see how this isn't going to get much worse for them before it gets better. How do you win Ukraine now? Invade?

As Americans, we should find it very distressing that the clinical case for overreaction is staring us in the face, yet we learning nothing from it. Everything about the last few weeks in Ukraine says "cool out" and "don't do anything stupid." But the voice of America, embodied so well by you cousin, is pleading for the exact opposite. Russia has failed! Let's fail even more spectacularly!

In the meantime, the intense urge to "roll the ball out" hides what has actually been accomplished. Little would most of us know, the Obama administration has led the most aggressive response to Russian fiddling in Ukraine. Sure, sanctions don't play well on Fox News (only McCain boners there), but it looks like they've worked pretty well. The US government is now targeting Russian banks and energy companies, and the EU pushed through tougher sanctions on the day before plane was shot out of the sky. You now have the unfathomable occurrence of a Dutch Prime Minister vowing revenge. You think things are going to end well for Russia?

It's time like these that lead me to a much more reflective mood, resembling the ideology of Carl Sagan's pale blue dot. Looking at the Earth on a global or, even better, a universal scale is deeply humbling. It's a reminder of how small we are, how short our lives are and how limited we can be in trying to force through change during emotional moments. It's a reminder of the slower changes and greater challenges we face as a species, those true existential threats that are entirely divorced from the day-to-day chatter of the news media.

This is an awful tragedy. Everyone should be shocked, horrified and saddened by what has just happened. There will likely be even greater ramifications from all of this. More blood will be spilled in Ukraine. But moments like these also indicate a turning of the tide. As Dr. King reiterated, "nights are always darkest before the dawn." Everything is finally pointing towards a concerted Western response to end this issue; one that doesn't require Obama becoming a "decider" or impossible fantasies of unity within our broken political system. Diplomacy will eventually work, and it will save us from the even greater dangerously of overreaction.