The Price We Pay

In light of my previous article on the imminent end to the conflict in Ukraine, I think it's worthwhile to take a moment, complicate that conclusion and and remind ourselves of everything that's brought the Ukrainian crisis to this point. I'll say that there's about a 60 percent, maybe 70 percent chance that this is the beginning of the end. I have no idea how Europe can continue to sit on the sidelines after the death of so many Western European civilians, and the case against the Russian military only grows stronger each day.
Nonetheless, the unofficial ET motto is "always be a pessimist with Russia," and there are good reasons to remain pessimistic here too. The Maidan and counter-revolution has been nothing but an agonizing series of escalations, with each side becoming steadily more violent. Remember:

1. Snipers firing on the Maidan lead Svoboda to violate the agreement with Yanukovych and force him out if the country.
2. Which terrifies Russian speakers into considering separatism.
3. Which parliament answers by passing laws to demote the status of the Russian language (eventually vetoed) and disband pro-Russian political parties.
4. Crimea joins Russia, and more independence movements emerge.
5. Ukrainian nationalists begin violently confronting separatists. Svoboda leads an assault in Sevastopol where 40 Russians are trapped in a building and burned alive.
6. Separatists become more organized as the Russian military gets deeper involved. Ukrainian military outposts in the east are attacked, and soldiers are murdered.
7. After a series of military gains for the separatists, Poroshenko begins an all-out assault on the east, calling it an "anti-terrorist" campaign.
8. Civilian casualties mount as the cities of Slovyansk, Donetsk and Lugansk are regularly bombarded.
9. Russia begins supplying anti-aircraft weaponry to separatists, and it quietly starts shooting at jets from across the border. Something like 3 attack bombers and a cargo transport are shot down. Tellingly, the last flies at altitudes similar to civilian aircraft.
10. The plane goes down.

This is not a series of events that leads to a simple conclusion that everyone suddenly wants peace. I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainian government takes up this opportunity to bomb even more aggressively, considering Russia's anti-aircraft fire is under intense scrutiny, to say the least.

Which brings us to the important point missing entirely from the West's coverage of this slow-boiling civil war. Atrocities are being committed by both sides, and the Ukrainian government's efforts have led to something like a thousand deaths, many more injuries and around 110,000 people fleeing their homes and crossing the border in search of safety. Whether we like it or not, the vision of the most extreme ethnic nationalists in Kiev is coming true: the Ukraine that emerges from this will see almost every pro-Russian urge snuffed out, at the expense of the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of Russian speakers. This is ethnic cleansing. These are war crimes.

We will inevitably be a part of this "victory." American military advisers are working with the Ministry of Defense in Kiev to make sure that the separatists are wiped out. The American media has essentially issued a black-list on reports from eastern Ukraine, which is convenient since you get to avoid the ruined cities and dead civilians that everyone watches in an endless loop through the Russian media. You have major Russian newspapers writing things like "those who permit murderers to win…automatically have the blood of peaceful citizens on their hands.”

In gaining a new "unified" Ukraine, we are also winning an east that is now "relegated to the position of a vanquished country” (to steal another quote). We're allowing our new "democrats" to be baptized in the blood of innocents. We're abandoning any semblance of the liberal values that this enterprise was supposed to promote. We're creating a situation far more dangerous than what existed before that fateful decision to allow Yanu to be driven off into the night.

Once again, we're reminded that there are no heroes in war. That civilians always die, and that the urge to violently force change always ends with bloodshed and broader crimes against humanity. A call for stability, level-headedness and restraint is not some departure from a set of fundamental ideals, and those that stand against the naive urge to action are not acting out of cowardice. Adhering to strategic interests is, instead, a commitment to preserving human life against the furies of idealism and revolution. It is a recognition that nothing thrives in this environment but misery and despair.

Credit for the "Russian side of the story" goes to Stephen Cohen over at The Nation. It's definitely worth the time to read his review of the previous five months, as well as his discussion of the Obama administration's complicity in the downing of MH17. They both do a good job of correcting for Western media bias.